Economic Survey 2023 may peg FY24 GDP growth at 6-6.8% | MC Exclusive

The Union Budget for the fiscal year 2023-24 will be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1.

India’s Economic Survey may project real gross domestic product growth for the next financial year in a 6.0 to 6.8 percent range, a government official told Moneycontrol.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is due to table the Economic Survey for 2022-23 in the parliament on January 31.

Also Read Economic Survey 2023 Live Updates: India's FY24 GDP growth likely to be pegged at 6.8%, slowest in 3 years

The Economic Survey could project a broad range for FY24 growth because of the uncertain global macroeconomic and geopolitical situation, the official, who did not want to be identified, told Moneycontrol.

The growth forecast made by the Economic Survey for 2022-23, tabled in parliament a day before the finance minister presents the Union Budget for the next financial year, will be 20 to 100 basis points lower than the statistics ministry’s first advance estimate of 7 percent for this year.

One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Economists expect India’s growth to slow in line with the globe next year due to weakness in external demand, as developed economies are seen entering a recession.

The Reserve Bank of India, in its September 2022 Monetary Policy Report, had forecast that GDP growth in 2023-24 may be 6.5 percent. This forecast may undergo a revision as early as next week when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces its interest rate decision on February 8, where the panel is expected to hike rates again.

The finance ministry’s Budget estimates for next year are not based on the real GDP growth forecast made by the Economic Survey, which is prepared by the chief economic adviser.